In 2021, Tyler Van Dyke's Total QBR was 80.1. In 2022, it was 52.9.
— 💫🅰️♈️🆔 (@ADavidHaleJoint) July 17, 2023
In 2021, Brennan Armstrong's Total QBR was 75.4. In 2022, it was 44.4.
From 2020-21, Phil Jurkovec's Total QBR was 75.0. In 2022, it was 36.7.
So, who the hell knows what to think? I highly doubt Drake Maye regresses. I’m confident Jordan Travis has a great season if healthy. I highly doubt UVA, VT or GT suddenly has a superstar QB. But look no further than last year for how wrong I can be.
— 💫🅰️♈️🆔 (@ADavidHaleJoint) July 17, 2023
PFF '22 overall returning ACC QB grades
— 💫🅰️♈️🆔 (@ADavidHaleJoint) July 17, 2023
1. Travis
2. Maye
3. Shrader
** Plummer
4. Leonard
* Griffis
* Klubnik
5. Van Dyke
6. Wells
* MJ Morris
7. Jurkovec
8. Armstrong
9. Morehead
** at Cal
* not enough snaps to qualify
Oddly, PFF's grades just for passing don't look markedly different, though Maye & Travis are flip-flopped at the top. I'm not sure I get the lesser take on Leonard beyond the weak SoS, but 🤷♂️🤷♂️
— 💫🅰️♈️🆔 (@ADavidHaleJoint) July 17, 2023
Riley Leonard vs. FBS by coverage
— 💫🅰️♈️🆔 (@ADavidHaleJoint) July 17, 2023
zone: 83.6 QBR, 66.3% comp 8 TD, 0 INT
man: 47.4 QBR, 49.5% comp, 6 TD, 4 INT
Phil Jurkovec was pressured on 45.5% of his dropbacks last season, easily the highest rate in FBS. Since 2018, only 3 other P5 QBs have had worse. FWIW, last year, Pitt's Kedon Slovis had the longest time to first pressure of any ACC QB.
— 💫🅰️♈️🆔 (@ADavidHaleJoint) July 17, 2023
Jurkovec was pressured on HALF his obvious passing down dropbacks last year… but you know who was under almost as much duress? Drake Maye, who was pressured on 45.3% of OPDs. And yet, he completed 67% of those throws w/12 TD & 4 INT. Dude is a stud.
— 💫🅰️♈️🆔 (@ADavidHaleJoint) July 17, 2023
BTW… You know who led all P5 QBs in TD passes on obvious passing downs? Sam Hartman with 18 — three more than Caleb Williams, who was 2nd. Mitch Griffis might be pretty good, but stuff like that is why Hartman is so tough to replace.
— 💫🅰️♈️🆔 (@ADavidHaleJoint) July 17, 2023
One more: There were 14 P5 QBs who were pressured on at least 40% of their dropbacks on obvious passing downs. Six were in the ACC (Wells, Armstrong, Shrader, Maye, Morehead & Jurkovec). ACC OLs killed some QBs last year.
— 💫🅰️♈️🆔 (@ADavidHaleJoint) July 17, 2023
Jurkovec was blitzed on 36.6% of his dropbacks last year, 2nd-most in the ACC.
— 💫🅰️♈️🆔 (@ADavidHaleJoint) July 17, 2023
Emmett Morehead was blitzed just 23.9%, second-lowest in the ACC.
Haynes King (vs FBS) on throws 10+ yards beyond the line of scrimmage over the past two years: 42.2% completions, 0 TD, 5 INT, 33.8 raw QBR.
— 💫🅰️♈️🆔 (@ADavidHaleJoint) July 17, 2023
Last time each ACC team posted a Total QBR > P5 avg.
— 💫🅰️♈️🆔 (@ADavidHaleJoint) July 17, 2023
2022: FSU, UNC, WF, Duke, Lville, Cuse, Clemson
2021: Pitt, Mia, UVA, NCSU
2020: VT, BC
2017: GT
No ACC team passed more on first down vs FBS than Virginia (61.5%).
— 💫🅰️♈️🆔 (@ADavidHaleJoint) July 17, 2023
61% of Brennan Armstrong's 72 second-down dropbacks came with UVA needing 10+ yards for a first down.
Jordan Travis on first-down plays last year: 69.3% completions, 8.57 yards/rush, 8.75 yards/pass, 13 TD, 2 turnover.
— 💫🅰️♈️🆔 (@ADavidHaleJoint) July 17, 2023
Jordan Travis
— 💫🅰️♈️🆔 (@ADavidHaleJoint) July 17, 2023
2021 pressure%: 35.1
2022 pressure%: 32.4
2021 sacks/pressure: 26%
2022 sack/pressure: 12%
2021 yd/play under pressure: 3.2
2022 yd/play under pressure: 5.1
QB A: 159 dropbacks, 4 TD, 6 INT, 15 comps of 20+, 58.4 Total QBR
— 💫🅰️♈️🆔 (@ADavidHaleJoint) July 17, 2023
QB B: 116 dropbacks, 2 TD, 3 INT, 7 comps of 20+, 57.1 Total QBR
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QB A is Louisville's Brock Domann.
QB B is Clemson's Cade Klubnik.
QB A: 1,900 dropbacks, 61.4% comp, 6.17 yd/db, 71 TD, 37 INT
— 💫🅰️♈️🆔 (@ADavidHaleJoint) July 17, 2023
QB B: 1,449 dropbacks, 65.5% comp, 8.40 yd/db, 95 TD, 26 INT
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QB A is all Clemson QBs since 2017 not named Trevor Lawrence
QB B is all QBs since 2020 w/Garrett Riley calling plays
This time last year I did a little 🧵looking for comparisons for Tyler Van Dyke. Best one I could find? Kedon Slovis. That comparison feels much more daunting now… https://t.co/3a14H4WnTU
— 💫🅰️♈️🆔 (@ADavidHaleJoint) July 17, 2023
Van Dyke was actually *more* accurate in 2022 than 2021.
— 💫🅰️♈️🆔 (@ADavidHaleJoint) July 17, 2023
2021: 69.3% adj comp%, 11.7% off target
2022: 70.8% adj comp%, 8.7% off target
Tyler Van Dyke QBR vs the blitz (FBS games only)
— 💫🅰️♈️🆔 (@ADavidHaleJoint) July 17, 2023
2021: 82.7 (23rd among QBs w/100 dropbacks)
2022: 21.1 (145th)
Tyler Van Dyke was an exceptional deep-ball thrower in 2021, with 22 completions, 7 TD, 2 INT, 15.8 yds/pass. He was actually more accurate on such throws in 2022.
— 💫🅰️♈️🆔 (@ADavidHaleJoint) July 17, 2023
% of TVD's throws that were 20+ yards in 2021: 17.6
% in 2022: 9.1 (just 1 went for a TD)
Most scramble yards, returning FBS QBs
— 💫🅰️♈️🆔 (@ADavidHaleJoint) July 17, 2023
Daniels, LSU – 641
Maye, UNC – 561
Finn, Tol – 456
Harris, UTSA – 435
Cordeiro, SJSU – 420
Leonard, Duke – 379
Eight of Garrett Shrader's 13 starts last season came vs. top-40 pass defenses (by EPA), more than any other FBS QB (Stroud had 7, no others more than 6). He posted a 65.7 Total QBR in those games; 74.6 in 5 others.
— 💫🅰️♈️🆔 (@ADavidHaleJoint) July 17, 2023
Virginia Tech had a 36.4% success rate on all dropbacks last year, worst in the ACC and 117th in FBS. (Auburn, Iowa, Colorado & Rutgers were only P5s worse).
— 💫🅰️♈️🆔 (@ADavidHaleJoint) July 17, 2023
Dating back to 2017, no ACC team has a better success rate on dropbacks than… Wake Forest (47.6%, 13th nationally).
— 💫🅰️♈️🆔 (@ADavidHaleJoint) July 17, 2023
Last year, 44.6% of Louisville's 1st/2nd-down plays were dropbacks (99th nationally); 57% of Purdue's were dropbacks (23rd nationally).
— 💫🅰️♈️🆔 (@ADavidHaleJoint) July 17, 2023
Here is the full list of P5 QBs to throw for 3,000 yards, 20+ TDs and less than 10 INTs for a team that won four or fewer games in the playoff era:
— 💫🅰️♈️🆔 (@ADavidHaleJoint) July 17, 2023
Jack Plummer, Cal, 2022
That's it. That's the whole list.
Tentative QB ranking (breaks for tiers)
— 💫🅰️♈️🆔 (@ADavidHaleJoint) July 17, 2023
Note: 80% starter, 20% overall team situation
1. UNC
2. FSU
–
3. Duke
4. Clemson
–
5. Miami
6. Pitt
7. Lou
8. WF
9. NCSU
10. Cuse
–
11. GT
12. BC
13. VT
–
14. UVA
Tentative All-ACC
— 💫🅰️♈️🆔 (@ADavidHaleJoint) July 17, 2023
1st team: Drake Maye, UNC
2nd team: Jordan Travis, FSU
Went back & forth on this and may still switch but doing these rankings has really underscored how little help Maye had last year.
by David M. Hale 